Analysis: Tweaks in B.C.S. Could Results From Conference Changes

Those were the good old days, before a wave of off-the-field scandal and realignment uncertainty engulfed the sport, the real-time drama distracting everyone from the annual end-of-season headaches.

But with the release of the B.C.S. standings Sunday night, the potential for college football’s season to end with a lot of unhappy undefeated teams became clear. There are nine undefeated teams that could make a case that they should play for the title — sorry, No. 19 Houston, you’re not one of them — and yet another awkward finish appears likely.

But perhaps more important, with so much big-picture change brewing, the biggest question among the sport’s administrators is whether the shifts in conferences’ makeup will result in significant changes to the B.C.S.

As the tumult of conference expansion has defined the past three months, the B.C.S. coordinator, Bill Hancock, has been calling commissioners and administrators to brainstorm about potential changes. The B.C.S. contract expires at the end of the 2013 regular season, and Hancock said a mechanism had been set up for B.C.S. leadership to discuss potential changes. Hancock said changes would be determined in the next calendar year, as they have to be prepared to be presented to ESPN for its exclusive negotiation window by next fall.

“Because it is so early in the process, it wouldn’t be appropriate to even try to describe the general direction right now, except to say that I am hearing little to no sentiment for an F.C.S.-style playoff,” Hancock wrote in an e-mail Sunday. He was referring to the Football Championship Subdivision, which has a playoff format for its national title.

Hancock added that the integrity of the regular season and the bowl experience were priorities to be preserved, which are familiar talking points. The party line from university presidents has always been that a playoff in college football would interfere with academics, spoil the regular season and professionalize a sport that is having difficulty rationalizing its vestiges of amateurism.

But even with conferences seemingly growing as fast as television contracts are increasing in value, the resistance to extreme change in the B.C.S. is severe.

The Big Ten commissioner, Jim Delany, who has long been an advocate of the sport’s vibrant regular season and his league’s relationship with the Rose Bowl, said it was a leap to think that bigger leagues were a gateway to a playoff system.

“That’s not a logical conclusion,” he said in a phone interview Sunday. “The reasons people do or don’t judge a viewpoint on the system is not related to the size of a conference.”

There are a few possible B.C.S. discussions that everyday fans would care about. That would include adding a B.C.S. bowl game — the Cotton Bowl is commonly mentioned — to increase the number of B.C.S. bids and changing the limit of two teams per conference for B.C.S. games.

During the build-up to the current B.C.S. contract, there was a formal discussion of whether leagues would favor the so-called Plus One model, which would essentially have the top four teams play off in the B.C.S.

Just moving to have a discussion about the Plus One model was a big deal, and only the commissioners Mike Slive of the Southeastern Conference and John Swofford of the Atlantic Coast Conference favored it. There was so little interest that a vote wasn’t even taken.

Plus One was ultimately seen as a gateway to a bigger playoff, and college football still appears a long way from trending in that direction. During the expansion boom the past two years, a common refrain was that the march toward 16-team superconferences would inevitably lead to a playoff.

Delany said he did not see that.

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Mountain West, Conference USA Plan Football Merger

The two leagues expect to merge their football operations into one mega-conference that will probably have between 20 and 24 teams in it when it finally gets going in 2013.

The name? They'll come up with one.

Will Boise State and Air Force, among others, stay? They hope.

"I'm just trying to create stability — greater stability — so we're not talking about membership issues," Mountain West commissioner Craig Thompson said Friday night on a conference call. Both commissioners, Thompson and Conference USA commissioner Britton Banowsky, said the new arrangement will provide the security that top programs need to keep them from jumping ship.

That's clearly the reason for the merger announced Friday, shortly after it came out that Boise State and Air Force — two key Mountain West programs — were being courted by the Big East.

Down to six teams of its own after Syracuse and Pittsburgh announced a pending departure to the ACC, the league generally viewed as the weakest of the automatic qualifiers for the Bowl Championship Series looks set to poach some of the top mid-majors.

A Big East official, speaking on condition of anonymity because the conference had not authorized anyone to speak publicly about its plans, told The Associated Press that the conference plans to invite Boise State, Air Force and Navy as football-only members, and Central Florida to compete in all sports.

"It's a viable option and it creates stability and that's what they're looking for," Thompson said. "I can't answer what Air Force will do or won't do, but we're going to put a very attractive opportunity on the table for the United States Air Force Academy."

Both Thompson and Banowsky said it's too soon to discuss how the sprawling league — which could stretch from West Virginia and Florida to Hawaii and Idaho — would handle scheduling.

They were able to emphasize, however, that they would honor their current TV contracts.

"I think definitely the intention is increased television revenue for all members," Thompson said. "We like the new approach because it's different. It's proactive."

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AP College Football Writer Ralph D. Russo contributed.

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Follow Rick Freeman at twitter.com/RWFreeman

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2011 SEC Non-Traditional Out of Conference Game Predictions

I'm an Auburn homer. I think they'll win every game. I refuse to think otherwise, so if that colors me slightly biased, I'm open about admitting it. I'll also admit that I'm probably not the most reliable go-to guy for betting information involving an Auburn team for the same reason. I picked Auburn to win every game last year. As it was, I just happened to be right, which really bolsters my confidence going into this year.  I did miss five games in 2009 however, but I'm still right most of the time.

That being so, I'm still not usually one to make predictions involving Auburn until the very last minute when I'm forced to do it. However, with the other teams in the conference, I have no such reservations, and with the preseason Coaches Poll out last week soon to be followed by the AP poll, I figure why not cast out my predictions for the out-of-conference (OOC) games of interest that are not standing rivalry games?

Usually crucified for their OOC scheduling, the SEC in recent years has made a consistent effort to take on more BCS teams that we don't play that often--many from outside the south. Bolstered by the addition of one-and-done contests like the Chick Fil A Kickoff Game and the Cowboys Classic, college football itself is making it easier to lure together more attractive non-traditional opponents due to the high national exposure and payouts. Just this year, the SEC showcases three strong opening weekend games: LSU-Oregon in Dallas, Georgia-Boise State in Atlanta, and Ole Miss-BYU in Oxford.

While I said last year that Vanderbilt had the toughest OOC schedule, there's little doubt that LSU wears that crown this year with the opener against Oregon in Dallas and at West Virginia on September 24th. Vandy still has a tough slate with UConn, Army and Wake Forest. And while I generally almost always root for SEC teams in OOC games, I don't think we're going to win them all this year. Here's the Top 10 contests:

Sept 3rd: LSU and Oregon: How does it get better than this? The 3rd and 4th ranked teams in the pre-season, Oregon coming off the narrow national championship game loss and LSU from an 11-2 season and Cotton Bowl beat-down of Texas A&M. It's so hard to start the season without any tune-up contest and immediately play national-caliber competition. A win can propel a team on to great things like Alabama did in 2008 after clobbering Clemson in the Chick Fil A Kickoff Game, or for the reverse, see Clemson's fortunes that very same year. Oregon returns many of their starters as does LSU, but with the loss to Auburn still fresh on their minds and the Tiger's QB fortunes still unproven in my mind, I think Oregon edges this one out in yet another slow motion fashion for the Ducks, 17-14.

Sept 3rd: Georgia and Boise State: After playing with a major chip on their shoulders the last two seasons, going undefeated in 2009 and losing late to Nevada last year to see any hopes of BCS and national championship glory go down the drain, the Broncos come into the Georgia Dome once again looking for national respect--this time in an early season game against a BCS opponent rather than in a bowl game. None on this team were around the last time Boise played in the state of Georgia, a 48-13 drubbing by the very same Dogs in Athens in 2005, but we're sure it'll still be on their minds. Mark Richt and Georgia come into the season hungry to reestablish themselves as contenders in the SEC east and a solid victory over Boise will put them on the right path. Dogs win in a surprisingly hard-fought match, 28-24.

Sept 3rd: BYU at Ole Miss: The newly independent Cougars can have all the SEC scheduling they can handle now that they're leaving the Mountain West after arch-rival Utah got the invite to the PAC 12. BYU has only played SEC teams four previous times, winning only one game--in Provo against Mississippi State. While the Rebels are predicted to compete for last place in the SEC west along with Auburn by all the pundits, conference pride will be on the line. But BYU has much to prove in their new play em anywhere, anytime roll and comes away with a close win 31-27.

Sept 10th: Alabama at Penn State: Predicted to challenge for the national championship this year, The Tide probably circled this game first on their calendar as the necessary hurdle in the early season to clear for a run at the top. With JoPa suffering yet another major physical injury during practice this weekend, and being an empty suit on the sidelines for much of the past few years, you wonder how much fight the Nittany Lions will have in them when the Tide rolls in. There is a lot of respect in this rivalry going back to the great Sugar Bowl games of the 1970s but Alabama rolls big on the road 34-17.

Sept 10th: UConn at Vandy: Coming off their second Big East title in four seasons and subsequent punishing at the hands of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl, the Huskies had many people questioning whether the Big East was truly a BCS conference at all anymore. But that was last year and we are talking Vandy. The Dores make a valiant effort but the basketball-traditional Huskies rebound and beat a SEC team at their house 38-13.

Sept 17th: Auburn at Clemson: If there ever was a team that wanted the Auburn monkey off their backs it's Clemson, who haven't beaten their ancient Tiger rivals in sixty years. While taking Auburn to the wire in overtime in 2010 in a game they should have won, many think the Tiger Paws will have their day in Death Valley this year. Not to be so, as Auburn extends their misery for yet another year, 34-28, as the two will meet for the third consecutive year in 2012 in the Chick Fil A Kickoff Game in Atlanta. See you in Hartwell.

Sept 17th: Navy at South Carolina: The Palmetto state will see two fine contests involving their two native sons on this weekend as Navy plays in Columbia. While nobody doubts that Navy will run the ball and have some success against the Gamecocks, there will probably be little the Midshipmen can do to stop the hungry chickens from crowing atop the yard-arm. SC rolls 42-17.

Sept 24th: LSU at West Virginia: After the off-season firing of HC Bill Stewart and the subsequent turmoil within the program that it produced, coupled with the fact that the Mountaineers only really field a high-caliber team about every twenty years or so, further coupled with a possible opening season loss by the Tigers to Oregon, I think the Purple Tigers roll through Morgantown in a fury, 38-13. Chance of couch burning: HIGH. Keep scheduling SEC teams, West Virginia. We might eye you one day in a future mega-conference power expansion grab. You've got too much pluck to be in the damn ACC.

Oct 1st: Texas A&M at Arkansas: You would think that the Aggies will be fired up for another shot at an SEC team after losing to both the Hawgs last year in College Station and to LSU in the Cotton Bowl, but Arky will be waiting as well for a shot at their old rivals and wins this big, 45-24. A&M should keep hedging their bets and scheduling SEC teams to keep their name fresh in our minds should you finally bolt from the remnants of the Big 12 to be drafted by us.

Oct 22: Army at Vanderbilt: The Gold Dome Bowl. Don't squint while watching this one or you might not be able to figure out which team is which. I think Vandy should schedule at least one of the service academies each year just for the uniform confusion alone. The Commodores pull rank on the Cadets 24-16, making 2/3rds of the academies 0-2 against our conference this year.

Posted by War Eagle Atlanta

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Video: Conference confusion

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