Redefining fantasy running back success, Part II

jasonfsmith1 | Tags: Aaron Rodgers, Alfonso Smith, Beanie Wells, Chris Johnson, Darren McFadden, Drew Brees, Fred Jackson, Kendall Hunter, Philip Rivers, Roy Helu, Tom Brady

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Yesterday, we talked about diminished expectations for RBs this season.  Whereas the old “100 yards and a TD” standard is out the window as a means to judge them, now if you are getting 75 on the ground, 20-30 in receiving yards and maybe a TD, your RB stable is okay.  But how does this affect trades? How does it affect the way you’ll draft in the future?

2011 issue: If you are really unhappy with your RB situation, DON’T GIVE UP THE FARM FOR AN ELITE ONE.  It’s not worth it.  Keep scouring the waiver wire and pick up Kendall Hunter or Roy Helu or Alfonso Smith* and wait to see if one of them hits.  The price for an elite RB is too high. It’s not worth giving up a great WR, a contributing RB and possibly more.  For instance, say you’re hot on Fred Jackson.  Know what the guy who owns Jackson is going to ask for?  Your No. 1 WR and your No. 2 RB.  And either a QB, TE or “D” he can start.  There’s no reason to decimate your team for this, when no one has a monopoly on RBs and is running away with the league.  Stay the course, wait it out and hit the waiver wire hard.

2012 issue: I know we’re still in 2011’s infancy, but no matter what, you’re more than likely drafting a QB first next year.  Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers and Drew Brees should be your first four taken overall.  They’re the best, the guys who will give you 4K and 30 TDs guaranteed.  For the most part, they’re not going to get hurt, unlike RBs who are always one play away from the sideline.  There will be two or three more QBs who explode this season and play their way to the middle-to-late part of the first round next year, then you’ll finish out the round with Darren McFadden, Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson.

*Just real quick on Alfonso Smith.  I like him a ton in Arizona.  He’s surpassed Chester Taylor as the No. 2 behind Beanie Wells after Taylor’s lugubrious effort Sunday.  Ken Whisenhunt had glowing things to say about Smith, and considering Wells’ history, it’s worth getting ahead of the curve on Smith right now.

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Re-defining fantasy running back success

A big debate around the NFL Fantasy Live newsroom the last couple of days has been about running backs, and how their grand fantasy era is coming to an end.  So today and tomorrow we’ll examine how you can make sense of your team’s RB situation. Because if you’re like me, you’ve been looking at your RBs and saying “Geez, my guys stink.” Maybe not as much as you thought. Why?

The question really is just what is a good fantasy season by a RB in 2011? Through three weeks, running backs’ values are at an all-time low. If you think your high draft picks aren’t performing, you’re not alone. There’s only five players with more than 300 yards on the ground so far (Darren McFadden, LeSean McCoy, Maurice Jones-Drew, Ben Tate and Fred Jackson).  And only five RB’s have more than 2 TDs total (McCoy, Jackson, Adrian Peterson, McFadden and Ryan Mathews).

The top 10 running backs in fantasy have an average of 53 points per person for the season. The next 10 running backs?  They’re averaging just 33 points per person. To put that in perspective, wide receivers with more than 33 fantasy points (NFL.com standard scoring applying) include Torrey Smith, Denarius Moore and Devery Henderson.

So what does it mean?

It means that judging success is much different than it used to be.  The era of the 100-yard-a-game-with-a-TD back is receding.  So while it looks like players like LeGarrette Blount and Ahmad Bradshaw aren’t performing up to standard, it’s to the contrary.  They’re still doing well, but the barometer has changed.  Now, a “good week” for a running back is 75 yards on the ground, maybe 20-30 receiving and possibly a TD.  If these are the stats you’re getting?  Then you’re OK, keep plugging forward.

However, it’s not like you can make an excuse for every running back.  Shonn Greene, Frank Gore and Rashard Mendenhall, for example, are all hovering around the 50-yards-per-game mark and not catching balls out of the backfield (though Greene did have a good day that way Sunday), that is time for concern.  Getting limited production is okay and expected, but getting nothing is still getting nothing.

So, here are the guys to not worry about outside the elite running backs for now: Michael Turner, Matt Forte, Jahvid Best, Bradshaw, Blount and Peyton Hillis.

And the ones to worry about for now: Tim Hightower, Greene, Gore, Mendenhall, Chris Johnson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis.  And worry as in “I should pick up Kendall Hunter or Roy Helu just in case.”

Tomorrow: How this new strategy will affect trades in 2011 and the 2012 draft.

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