Here’s a championship weekend edition of Four Downs, starting with a look at why Ben Roethlisberger is so difficult to defend.
1. In my mind, Roethlisberger is tougher to defend than both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. The Jets have beaten both, but neither plays like Roethlisberger. They don’t get out of the pocket, extend plays or break down defenses the way Roethlisberger does, which can be frustrating and irritating for a defense. Roethlisberger plays with no conscience. He will throw the ball 65-yards downfield on a third-and-19. He doesn’t care. If he doesn’t make the throw, the Steelers punt and put the defense back out on the field. It’s true that you can hit Brady and Manning early and frustrate them by getting them off of their spot. I’ve seen Roethlisberger go through every situation imaginable, and nothing phases him. He just comes back on the next play.
Really, no one in the league outside of Michael Vick has more to prove to his city, his fans or his own teammates than Roethlisberger. He let them down the first quarter of the season and put the proudest organization in the league through a bad offseason. Even though he’s won two Super Bowls, no one deep down needs this more than Roethlisberger to erase the stain he put on the organization. I think he deep down feels like he owes everyone something. No one scares you more at the end of a game. This all makes Roethlisberger very dangerous.
2. How the Jets choose to defend the Steelers could limit the effectiveness of Darrelle Revis. The Jets will likely put Antonio Cromartie on Mike Wallace, the Steelers’ most dangerous receiver, like they did in the last matchup. That means for much of the game Revis is on Hines Ward, which isn’t using him to his strengths. Ward doesn’t beat any corner in the league in man-to-man — it’s just not what he does best — making it a misuse of Revis. But if you match up Revis on Antonio Brown or Emmanuel Sanders, the Steelers don’t go to them that often. So how does Revis take a receiver out of the game? If you put him on Wallace, it leaves Cromartie in situations where I’ve seen him get lost against certain formations or when things aren’t simple for him. I think the more the Steelers use bunch formations and three-by-one sets, the more it marginalizes the effectiveness of Revis, because he can’t effectively take out the Steelers’ most important receiver. Watch how Revis and Cromartie are used and the chess match with Steelers offensive coordinator Bruce Ariens.
3. Look for the Packers to come out and feature a nickel defense against the Bears. I expect them to use two defensive tackles, four linebackers and five defensive backs. The nickel back will be Charles Woodson, who will line up all over the field and be largely unaccounted for. The only way to get the Packers out of the nickel will be to run the ball, which the Bears did well in Week 17. As soon as you hurt the Packers with the run, defensive coordinator Dom Capers puts three defensive linemen on the field. That takes Woodson and puts him back where he belongs on the outside, farther away from opportunities, giving you a much better chance of operating your offense. If you let Woodson play in the middle of the field, he’s capable of making every tackle and being the most disruptive player. I don’t know if there is a better tackler in the league than Woodson.
4. If Chicago wins, the one player who will have had a big game is Matt Forte. The Bears decided to put the ball in his hands and make him the workhorse after their bye in Week 9, and I think Forte is very underrated. He can play receiver, in the slot and catch screens out of the backfield. I think he can also win the one-on-one matchups with inside linebackers A.J. Hawk and Desmond Bishop. Keep an eye on Forte, he’ll touch the ball a lot in this game. He had 25 touches last week and 23 against the Packers in Week 17. I see offensive coordinator Mike Martz leaning on Forte in this game like he used to with Marshall Faulk.
Here’s a look at four items from my film notes of Week 14:
1. I think Jacksonville can go into Indianapolis and win. The Jaguars continue to play to their identity – which is as a power-running football team – as well as anyone in the league. When you look at the 30-yard touchdown run by Maurice Jones-Drew to end last week’s game against the Raiders, it was the perfect example of a team that is patient and believes in the running game. The touchdown came on Jones-Drew’s 23rd attempt of the game, but before that he had eight carries of 1-yard or less. Most teams won’t call a run on second-and-10 there, but the Jaguars did, and it paid off. This is a team that believes in what they do, and they do it well. There’s a lot to defend with the Jaguars’ running game, and the Colts are not good at defending the run.
2. Credit the Patriots for tailoring their game plan to the winter conditions last week in Chicago. People were amazed the Patriots threw the ball in those conditions, but I think there’s a saying in New England that says, “The more it snows, the more we throw.” In snowy conditions on a slick field, offensive players have the advantage because they know where they’re going. Defensive players can’t react or make quick movements. Taking that into consideration, the Patriots shortened their routes to be quicker. Because the defensive linemen couldn’t make quick, explosive moves, they knew Tom Brady was going to get time. He sat there like a statue, throwing quick, 5-yard routes, play after play. Plus, he was extremely accurate, especially considering the conditions. Then in the running game, the Patriots didn’t try to move defenders off the line, knowing they can’t get traction. Instead they turned to the angle running game, getting short, quick angles to seal defenders and create alleys to run in. Shame on Chicago for never adjusting.
3. The happiest I’ve ever seen Eagles coach Andy Reid in his 12 years of coaching was at the end of last week’s win over the Cowboys. Leading 30-27 with 4:22 remaining in the game, the Eagles got the ball at their own 10-yard line. The Cowboys had three timeouts, but they never got the ball back. The Eagles ran nine plays, eight of which were runs, and got four first downs. They ran a perfect 4-minute drill. They got it done by basically blowing Dallas off the ball and controlling the line of scrimmage. The left side of Todd Herremans and Jason Peters is the best left side in football. Peters has been to the Pro Bowl, but I think this is the best he’s ever played. The Eagles went out and executed the drill exactly to how it’s practiced and talked through during OTAs and training camp, and they did it in Week 14 in Dallas — to perfection.
4. Baltimore is keeping pace with Pittsburgh, but the offense is really a mess. The Ravens don’t run the ball well, and they haven’t all year. It’s kind of a head-scratcher. But what the Ravens also aren’t doing is protecting QB Joe Flacco, who has been sacked once every 13 attempts. Going back to the Troy Polamalu sack/fumble play in Week 13, I saw the Texans run the exact same blitz last week. The Ravens made the exact same mistake, and Flacco was sacked and fumbled again. Their response to the Texans’ pressure was to use max-protection with eight-man protection. Twice, they allowed sacks and were forced to throw the ball away multiple times. The whole offense is out of sync right now for the Ravens, and I think they’ll struggle against the Saints because of it.
Published: December 9th, 2010 | Tags: Jacksonville Jaguars, Brian Baldinger, Dallas Cowboys, Four Downs, Jason Garrett, Jon Kitna, LeSean McCoy, Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles, St. Louis Rams, Steve Spagnuolo
My weekly look at game film brought up some interesting trends and truths. Four Downs starts this week with why I see the Jaguars winning the AFC South race.
1. In my mind, the Jaguars look like the team to win the AFC South. First of all, the schedule favors them: They face Oakland (6-6), Indy (6-6), Washington (5-7) and Houston (5-7). Next to the Chiefs, no one runs the ball a greater percentage of the time than the Jaguars. They play to their identity better than any other team in the division, running the ball and controlling the line of scrimmage. It was very evident last week against the Titans when they ran 53 times and repeated plays over and over until they could be stopped. That’s the Jaguars’ identity, and they do it better than almost everyone else. Right now the Jaguars are playing the best football in the division and are in the best position to win it.
2. It’s interesting to note that LeSean McCoy leads NFL running backs in receptions by a large margin and is on pace for 90 receptions. McCoy is a benefactor of the Eagles’ speed on the outside, especially last week against Houston. With DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin racing down the field on the outside, they take all the coverages with them, opening up a huge area underneath for screens, swing passes and check downs. The best part about it is Michael Vick’s accuracy. He throws swing passes better than anyone else in the NFL, putting it right in front of McCoy so he can catch it without having to turn around, and giving him more time to make a move on the first defender. The Eagles are excellent in this area.
3. Sam Bradford is garnering a lot of attention for the Rams, and rightfully so. But Steve Spagnuolo has the Rams defense playing really well. Their strength is that they attack the protections of the offense as well as anyone in football and get to the quarterback. It’s the same thing Spagnuolo did with the Giants’ defense on their Super Bowl run. I know Cardinals coaches Russ Grimm and Ken Whisenhunt are smart guys, but they seemed defenseless last week in stopping the overload pressures from the Rams. It’s really sophisticated, but the Rams execute it well.
4. I’d like to give some credit to Cowboys interim coach Jason Garrett. In the four games since he’s taken over the Cowboys, their offense is averaging 36.0 points per game. OK, he did coach the offense under Wade Phillips. So what’s different? The execution out of the Cowboys has been superb. The offensive line is run blocking much better and they’re running the ball 53 percent of the time under Garrett, which takes pressure off of QB Jon Kitna. And Kitna is completing 70 percent of his passes the last four weeks, you can’t get any better than that. He’s even helping his own cause, running 18 times, six of which have gone for first downs. If defenses want to double receivers, Kitna is good at taking off with the ball. He hasn’t been looking like any 38-year-old I know.
A few items on my mind this week after emerging from the film room, starting with the team that gets my vote as the NFL’s most improved.
1. The most improved team in the league right now is the Bills. The Bills are 2-4 over the last six weeks, and three of those losses were in overtime. They also should have easily won in Pittsburgh last week. I see improvement in all areas for the Bills, especially along the offensive line. More specifically, at left guard and left tackle. Demetrius Bell and Andy Levitre are a very, very talented left side we’re going to hear about for a long time. They’re a big reason why Ryan Fitzpatrick is flourishing. They have great technique, don’t get beat and are very physical. They took on the Steelers’ toe to toe and not only didn’t flinch, but outplayed the guys across from them.
2. Very quietly, the Dolphins have become a top 10 defense. They shut down Darren McFadden last week, and I think they’ll do the same to Peyton Hillis this week. Mike Nolan jettisoned OLBs Jason Taylor and Joey Porter when he put this 3-4 defense in, and I’m interested to watch the young and talented Cameron Wake and Koa Misi going forward. Wake can rush with both speed and power. It’s a credit to him that he’s an everydown player at his size, and a credit to his conditioning he’s able to play hard every play. Last week he took Raiders OT Langston Walker, who outweighs him by more than 100 pounds, and lifted him off his feet. That’s tough to do in this league. Misi is very strong and stout against the run. Wake and Misi have 14 sacks between them, and I’m willing to bet they reach 20 before the season is over. That’s what you’re looking for in a 3-4 defense.
3. I don’t know how Finnegan wasn’t penalized for the three plays leading up to the one that prompted the fight with Johnson. Finnegan was taking his right hand and jacking Johnson right in the chin, and I don’t know how it was allowed to go on. If I were Johnson, I would be thinking the whole thing was ridiculous. If it were me, and they weren’t going to call a penalty, I would want to do something about it. I’m all for the league not suspending Johnson, and if they don’t suspend him, they can’t suspend Finnegan. I’m OK with the fines because Johnson has a perfect track record on and off the field, and it was totally out of character. If I were Johnson, I would have done the same thing.
4. I know people in San Diego are wondering if the Chargers will go on their annual late-season run, and I think they will. As much as Philip Rivers is in the MVP discussion for the way he’s playing, I think you have to look at what Ron Rivera is doing with the defense. During their four-game winning streak, teams have converted only 28 percent of third downs, which is last in the league. Last week the Chargers held Peyton Manning to 3-of-12 passing on third down with three of his four interceptions. Watching the Chargers on third downs, they challenge every receiver on the field by jamming and re-routing them off the line. It worked well against Reggie Wayne, and it’s just the start of what they do. The Chargers are coached this way, and I think it’s the way you have to play defense in the NFL right now. Look for more of the same from the Chargers going forward, and I believe their game against the Chiefs in Week 14 will decide the AFC West.
Published: November 25th, 2010 | Tags: Ahmad Bradshaw, Asante Samuel, Austen Lane, Dimitri Patterson, Eli Manning, Hue Jackson, Jacksonville Jaguars, Jeremy Mincey, Matt Dodge, New York Giants, Oakland Raiders, Quintin Mikell, Terrance Knighton, Tom Cable, Tom Coughlin, Tyson Alualu
Another week of film works brings the latest edition of Four Downs, with a look at a few things that caught my eye. Enjoy Week 12 everyone.
1. The decision the Eagles made a month ago to put CB Dimitri Patterson in the starting lineup was the best personnel move they’ve made all season. They have totally contrasting styles, but in Patterson and Asante Samuel, the Eagles have the best cornerback tandem in the league. Samuel plays off the line and is a total playmaker. Patterson plays up, is aggressive, is a great tackler who doesn’t gamble and plays by the book with great technique. Together, they have a great blend of skills. It’s also helped Quintin Mikell to freelance and help out more in the run game. The Eagles can challenge wide receivers as well as anyone in the league right now.
2. A lot of people are waiting for the collapse of the Giants. They’re a better team than the way they’re playing now, but 30 turnovers in 10 games leads the league. The only reason the Giants have a winning record is the defense has been taking it away at a pretty good rate. If it was just Eli Manning throwing interceptions, you could focus on that. But it has also been Ahmad Bradshaw’s fumbles, and rookie punter Matt Dodge not being able to hang on to the ball. Tom Coughlin says every week the Giants need to cut down on the turnovers, but this has been going on since the beginning of last season. It’s the most important stat in football. The Giants had a very winnable game against the Eagles, but they lost because of five turnovers. It’s the biggest reason why they’re second in the AFC East, and ultimately, why I think the Giants will struggle to make the playoffs.
3. It’s no secret the Jaguars have been looking for defensive ends and any type of pass rush. The Jaguars started Austen Lane and Jeremy Mincey last week, and they might have gotten their best performance from defensive ends since Jack Del Rio has been in Jacksonville. They’re young, but they play the game the right way and were terrific against Peyton Hillis. For the first time in a long time, you could look at the Jaguars’ defensive line and say they were a force. Along with Tyson Alualu and Terrance Knighton, the Jaguars have a pretty good defensive front. They won the game against the Browns.
4. The Raiders were blown out in Pittsburgh last week, but really they were beaten as soon as they stepped off the bus. If you’re not sound and don’t have a complete understanding of your pass protections against the Steelers, you’re not going to beat that team. They have too many good pass rushers. The Raiders were awful in pass protection, and they were getting beat because of their schemes. The Raiders were asking for bad things to happen, and they happened all day long. They didn’t give themselves a fighting chance. Tom Cable is an old offensive line coach, and I think Hue Jackson is a good coordinator. But there’s no way you can go to Pittsburgh unprepared for the 3-4 defense, and not know how to respond when things go wrong. It was disappointing.
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In this week's Friday Four Downs, Andrea Adelson touches on the Southern Miss shooting, Boise State narrowing the gap on TCU in the polls, Gary Patterson’s media blitz and Utah coach Kyle Whittingham considering benching Jordan Wynn. Share Tags:
Kyle Whittingham, Boise State Broncos, Utah Utes, Gary Patterson, Jordan Wynn, Southern Miss Golden Eagles, Texas Christian Horned Frogs
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I’ve emerged from a couple of days in the film room, and wanted to share four items that caught my attention as I went back and watched each of the games from Week 10. Let’s roll …
1. The Raiders are on a three-game winning streak since rookie Jared Veldheer has been the starting left tackle, and I don’t think that’s a coincidence. He’s the best LT the Raiders have had since Barry Sims, and he might be even better. He’s 6-foot-8, which is really too tall to play tackle, but has great knee bend, is very athletic, stays on his feet and has a great jam. He was very good against Kansas City’s Tamba Hali two weeks ago and a big reason why Jason Campbell was able to complete the 47-yard pass to Jacoby Ford in overtime of that game.
If you’re watching the Raiders-Steelers this week, one of those classic throwback rivalry games, watch Veldheer and James Harrison go at it. The Raiders don’t give Veldheer a lot of help, and Harrison is as good as there is in this league at coming off the edge. I want to see how Veldheer does, because I think it will be a great test. It will help determine the outcome of the game if he can give Campbell time to throw.
2. I thought this one was fascinating. One of the biggest plays between the Giants and Cowboys last week was the 101-yard interception return by rookie Bryan McCann off Eli Manning. McCann, a rookie free agent out of SMU, was only on the field in the first place due to Mike Jenkins being injured. McCann was lined up against Giants WR Hakeem Nicks, who entered the game with a league-high nine TDs. Nicks, however, has a “tell” in his game that the Cowboys diagnosed. Against press man-to-man coverage, when Nicks goes outside he splits his feet first and then releases. If he’s going inside, he pumps his feet first. McCann watched this on tape. So when Nicks pumped his feet on the play, McCann trusted his eyes and his tape work — he knew Nicks was going inside — and jumped the route. What a huge spot in a huge game for an undrafted rookie. It’s not just about film study, though, it’s about attention to detail.
3. The Chiefs made a subtle change last week that went largely unnoticed when they started Jamaal Charles over Thomas Jones. Over the last two weeks, teams have been stacking the line of scrimmage against the Chiefs in order to force Matt Cassel to beat them. Even though he threw the ball for 469 yards last week against the Broncos, Cassel couldn’t complete a third-down pass to keep the Chiefs on the field when the game was still close. So the strategy worked. Still, there are certain runs that work against eight- and nine-man fronts, and the Chiefs have them. The Power-O can cut the defense in half and really attack where there are fewer defenders. Charles is very good at running the play behind a pulling guard, and I suspect that’s what the Chiefs will do this week. I predict he’ll have a great game and the Chiefs will be successful running the football.
4. The Think Tank for the NFL is college football. What you see in college football right now will eventually make its way to the NFL. The league is evolving and changing at a pace faster than it ever has before, and the Pistol formation is the latest example. Jason Garrett implemented the Pistol twice last week, where the QB is in a short-shotgun snap about four yards behind center, and the running back is two yards behind him. Nevada started it on the college level and now many teams use it.
The advantage is there are no keys between run and pass. The Cowboys ran it on back-to-back plays, running the exact same play each time. Felix Jones ran for 9 yards, and then 3 yards. You’re going to see this formation often, and you’re going to see options and option-passes off of it. It’s going to take off subtly, a little like the Wildcat did. When quarterbacks like Vince Young and Michael Vick are involved, teams will have to defend two or three runners on every play, and they won’t know if it’s a run or pass.
Published: December 9th, 2010 | Tags: Jacksonville Jaguars, Brian Baldinger, Dallas Cowboys, Four Downs, Jason Garrett, Jon Kitna, LeSean McCoy, Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles, St. Louis Rams, Steve Spagnuolo
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