Data Points: Numbers say Lions are playoff-bound

Published: October 3rd, 2011 | Tags: Data Points, Detroit Lions, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, St. Louis Rams

Good news for the Detroit Lions: Recent history says they now have an 82 percent chance of making their first playoff appearance since 1999. The Lions, along with the Packers, are off to a 4-0 start. Since 1990, 50 of the 61 teams to win their first four games have gone on to the postseason.

On the opposite side of the spectrum, the 0-4 Dolphins, Vikings and Rams (and Colts, depending on what they do Monday night) can all but book their January vacations. Only one team in the last two decades has started 0-4 and made the playoffs. Follow the pie charts below, and you can see how the chances get smaller and smaller as you go from 4-0 teams to 0-4 teams:

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Are This Season’s Huge Passing Numbers Leading To More Points?

The explosion in passing yards is not leading to a similar increase in points scored.  Passing yards are at 128.4 and points scored are at 113.5.  (2006 = 100.0); this is the biggest difference between the two since the start of the 16-game era.  There may be more passing yards to be had due to the new kickoff rule pushing starting field position back.  The sample size is only 2 weeks; these numbers can, and probably will change.

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By the numbers: Packers-Bears

Published: January 23rd, 2011 | Tags: Green Bay Packers, B.J. Raji, Caleb Hanie, Chicago Bears, James Starks, Matt Forte, NFC Championship Game, Sam Shields, Tom Waddle

The crew on the NFL Network research desk has sent out its notes from the Packers’ 21-14 win over the Bears in the NFC Championship game, and it’s headlined by this nugget: The Packers are the 10th different NFC champion in last 10 seasons.

That’s a pretty amazing fact.

Here are some other interesting numbers:

The Packers are the second No. 6 seed in NFL history to reach the Super Bowl, joining the 2005 Steelers. They’re also the fourth team in NFL history to win three road games in a single postseason, joining that same Steelers team, the 1985 Patriots and the 2007 Giants.B.J. Raji’s 18-yard interception return TD was the third by a defensive tackle in NFL playoff history. The others were a 61-yard return TD by Michael Carter of the 49ers against the Redskins in the 1990 divisional round, and a 10-yard return by Darryl Grant of the Redskins against the Cowboys in the 1982 NFC Championship.The Packers improved to 28-16 all-time in playoffs, and their .636 winning percentage is highest in NFL playoff history.Here’s a look at the value of James Starks and the balance of the of the Packers offense: They outrushed the Bears 120-83 Sunday and have outrushed opponents 354-209 in the 2010 playoffs.Sam Shields had a sack, a forced fumble and two interceptions after having two interceptions during the entire regular season.The Bears are the only team since 1970 to have three QBs with a pass attempt in a conference championship. Third-stringer Caleb Hanie was 13 of 20 passing for 153 yards, with a TD and two INTs. Prior to Sunday, Hanie had attempted 14 passes in four career games, including two this season.Matt Forte finished with 17 rushes for 70 yards and 10 receptions for 90 yards. His 10 receptions sets a franchise playoff record, breaking the mark held by NFL Network’s Tom Waddle (nine receptions in 1991 Wild Card vs. Cowboys).

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By the numbers: Jets-Steelers

Published: January 24th, 2011 | Tags: AFC Championship Game, Ben Roethlisberger, LaMarr Woodley, Mark Sanchez, Mike Tomlin, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, rashard mendenhall

The NFL Network research crew has finished crunching the numbers, so here’s a look at the most notable nuggets from the Steelers’ 24-19 win over the Jets at Heinz Field:

The Steelers will make their eighth Super Bowl appearance, which ties the Cowboys for most all-time. It’s their third Super Bowl appearance in the last six seasons.Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has put himself in some elite company. He is the second head coach in NFL history to reach two Super Bowls in his first four seasons, joining Joe Gibbs, who reached the Super Bowl in his second and third seasons in 1982-83.The same goes for Ben Roethlisberger. He improved to 10-2 in his career as starter in the playoffs, and his .833 winning percentage is the second-highest in NFL playoff history (minimum 10 starts). The only quarterback ahead of him is Bart Starr (.900).Rashard Mendenhall played hero for the Steelers. He rushed 27 times for 121 yards and a touchdown, the most yards allowed by the Jets all season (including playoffs). Mendenhall broke tackles throughout the first half, gaining 95 yards.LaMarr Woodley recorded one sack against the Jets and has 10 in six career playoff games. That’s the fewest games in NFL history to reach 10 career playoff sacks.It was a tale of two halves for the Jets offensively, and the first half wasn’t pretty. The Jets managed five first downs and 50 total yards — just 1 yard rushing. Three of their five series lasted just three plays, twice ending in punts and the other on a Mark Sanchez fumble that was returned 19 yards by William Gay for a touchdown.It’s an understatement that the Jets didn’t get the running game going until the second half, and their 70 yards total rushing was the lowest ever under Rex Ryan (including playoffs). It was just the fifth time in 38 games the Jets didn’t reach 100 yards rushing under Ryan.It would be tough to put this loss on the shoulders of Sanchez, who was 20-of-33 passing for 233 yards and two touchdowns. Aided by a running game during the second half, Sanchez went 13 of 18 for 170 yards and both of his touchdowns, leading the Jets on three drives of 58 yards or more.Posted in: NFL Network  

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By the numbers: Seahawks-Bears

Published: January 16th, 2011 | Tags: NFC Divisional Playoffs, Charles Tillman, Chicago Bears, Golden Tate, Greg Olsen, Jay Cutler, Justin Forsett, Marshawn Lynch, Mike Williams, Otto Graham, Seattle Seahawks

The NFL Network research team sent out the final numbers on the Bears’ 35-24 win over the Seahawks:

The Bears improved to 10-0 this season, including the playoffs, when having 21-plus rushing attempts. The Bears rushed 45 times for 176 yards, the third-most yards in franchise playoff history.Bears TE Greg Olsen made a huge impact in the first half with three receptions for 113 yards and a touchdown. His yards were the third-most in franchise playoff history, and the most ever by a tight end.The Bears set a franchise single-game playoff record with 437 total yards.Jay Cutler was solid in his playoff debut, completing 15 of 28 passes for 274 yards and two TDs for a 111.3 passer rating. He also had 43 rushing yards and two TDs on the ground. Cutler is 22-0 during his career when he has a 100-plus passer rating.Cutler is the second quarterback in NFL playoff history to have two or more TDs both rushing and passing. Otto Graham did it twice, once in 1954 against Detroit and again in 1955 against the Rams.The Seahawks have lost eight straight road playoff games and are 1-8 all-time on the road in the playoffs.After rushing for 150 yards in their wild-card win last week, the Seahawks had 12 rushes for 34 yards against the NFL’s No. 2-ranked rush defense. Receiver Golden Tate was the team’s leading rusher with one attempt for 13 yards. Marshawn Lynch had four rushes for 2 yards, while Justin Forsett had 9 yards on four carries.Seahawks WR Mike Williams was mostly shut down while being matched up with Bears CB Charles Tillman most of the day. Williams was targeted 13 times and finished with four receptions for 15 yards and two TDs, including this improbable score.Posted in: NFL Network  

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By the numbers: Jets-Patriots

Published: January 16th, 2011 | Tags: AFC Divisional Playoffs, Bill Belichick, Mark Sanchez, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Rex Ryan, Tom Brady

Here are some numbers from the Jets’ 28-21 win over the Patriots in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, courtesy of the NFL research desk:

The Jets will make their fourth AFC Championship appearance since 1970, but it’s the first time they’ve reached the AFC Championship in back-to-back seasons.The Jets are the second team to defeat teams led by Peyton Manning and Tom Brady as the starters in back-to-back games, joining the 2002 Titans, who did it in Weeks 14-15 that season.Rex Ryan becomes the fifth head coach in Super Bowl era to reach a Conference Championship in each of first two seasons. The last to do it was Barry Switzer in 1994-95. Ryan improved to 4-1 career in the playoffs, and all of his wins were on the road.Mark Sanchez joins  Ben Roethlisberger as the only QBs in NFL history to reach a Conference Championship in each of his first two seasons. Sanchez tied a Jets franchise playoff record with three TD passes (Joe Namath, Pat Ryan, Vinny Testaverde and Chad Pennington).The Patriots have lost three straight playoff games for first time under Bill Belichick, and have now lost two straight home playoff games for the first time in franchise history.Here’s a glance at how rare a home loss is for the Patriots, especially in the playoffs. The Patriots are 11-3 all-time at home in the playoffs and 35-5 in the last 40 home games, including playoffs. Tom Brady is 14-5 career in the playoffs (tied for second-most wins in NFL history) and is 70-12 career at home as the starter, with wins in 31 of his last 33 home starts, including playoffs.Under pressure: Brady was sacked five times, the most since Super Bowl XLII, when he was sacked five times by the Giants, the only other playoff game he’s been sacked as many times. It was just the sixth time in his career Brady has been sacked five or more times, including the playoffs.Posted in: NFL Network  

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Steelers, Packers put up impressive numbers

Published: January 16th, 2011 | Tags: Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, John Harbaugh, Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Tomlin, Peyton Manning, Terrell Suggs

Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald called the Steelers’ 31-24 triumph over the Ravens an instant classic. And what a game it was.

The Steelers will make their 15th conference championship appearance since 1970 (most in the NFL), while improving to 32-19 all-time in the playoffs, including a perfect 3-0 mark against the Ravens. The Steelers’ .627 winning percentage is the highest in NFL playoff history as well.

Here are some other morsels unearthed by our research department.

The Steelers outscored the Ravens 24-3 in the second half (the second-most points allowed by the Ravens against the Steelers all-time including playoff games, and the most points allowed by the Ravens in the second half since Nov. 27, 2005, when they allowed 25 second-half points to the Bengals).Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is 5-1 in the playoffs. Ravens coach John Harbaugh is 4-3 in the playoffs, with all of those games coming on the road.Ravens QB Joe Flacco is 2-6 vs. the Steelers, including the playoffs (0-6 when Ben Roethlisberger starts).The Ravens’ Terrell Suggs had three sacks and a forced fumble against the Steelers. He has five sacks in two playoff games this season, 10 sacks in his last seven playoff games and 13 sacks in his last 11 games against the Steelers, including the playoffs.Roethlisberger matched Colts QB Peyton Manning in playoff wins. Roethlisberger is 9-2 in the playoffs, while Manning is 9-10. Roethlisberger ranks second all-time among quarterbacks in playoff winning percentage.

Fitzgerald called Packers QB Aaron Rodgers the real slim shady. Alright, that won’t be the first time that Rodgers has been given somebody else’s nickname. Here are some notes from the Packers’ convincing win.

Rodgers is 2-1 in career playoff games as a starter, all on the road. The Packers won two playoff road games in the same season for the first time in franchise history.Rodgers had 366 passing yards, three passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown. This marked the seventh time in NFL playoff history that a player has had 300-plus passing yards, at least three touchdown passes and at least one rushing touchdown. But Rodgers is the only person to do it twice (Manning, Jeff Garcia, Kurt Warner, Dan Marino and Joe Montana are the other quarterbacks to attain those numbers in a playoff game).Rodgers’ 86.1 completion percentage is the fifth-highest in NFL playoff history (at least 20 attempts).Rodgers’ playoff passer rating is currently 129.4 (105 playoff attempts). Starr holds the NFL playoff record (104.8) for quarterbacks with at least 150 attempts.The Packers set a franchise record by scoring 48 points, breaking the previous mark of 45 set in last year’s 51-45 overtime loss to the Cardinals. The Packers scored a touchdown on five consecutive offensive possessions from the second to third quarter, tied for the second-most consecutive possessions with a touchdown in a playoff game since 1991.The Packers were the sixth team in NFL playoff history to not punt in a game.Posted in: News  

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Big QB numbers do not impress on Sunday

Published: November 21st, 2010 | | Tags: Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Jon Kitna, Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles

Quarterbacks are putting up some amazing numbers, yet many of us seem desensitized to the performances.

Take a look at some of the great games that quarterbacks have been putting up on Sunday. Cowboys QB Jon Kitna had three touchdowns and a rushing touchdown. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers had four touchdown passes. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger tossed three touchdown passes, raced in for another score.

But sorry gentlemen, Eagles QB Michael Vick set the bar pretty high.

Roethlisberger had 34.5 fantasy points in NFL.com basic scoring, and I don’t even raise an eyebrow. Unless you throw like seven touchdowns, or rush for 200 yards, that is just not that impressive.

What’s even better is that I benched Roethlisberger for Vick on one of my teams, and I’m not even sweating it right now. Of course, this will be the game that he comes back to Earth and posts pedestrian numbers. But the expectation level for Vick is unbelievable.

And that makes these other quarterbacks seem rather pedestrian. Kind of like the way the “Saw” movies have made some of the other horror flicks seem like a Disney picture.

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Blind Numbers

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After getting the 3-0 hat trick two weeks ago, we got skunked last week, going 0-3. Blind Bets is now 11-9 on the season against the spread. We here at Blind Numbers take great pride in the Blind Bets segment, and we'd like to apologize for any small fortunes our readers lost due to our [...] read more

October 29th, 2010 at 05:58 pm / #betting #sports betting #oregon #college football #kansas

Earlier this week I was talking to a co-worker, who I knew was a big Chiefs fan. Since I am also a Chiefs fan and Kansas City is off to such a hot start, I commented on Sunday's win over Jacksonville. His response: "Yeah, but I'm a lot more excited about another win." "What win [...] read more

October 29th, 2010 at 12:00 pm / #texas #nebraska #missouri #colorado #college football

Check out my story on Justin Blackmon at Holy Turf. read more

October 28th, 2010 at 12:24 pm / #college football #oklahoma state #k-state

I know I'm beating a dead horse here, but the Wildcats' "bend but don't break" defense has failed miserably whenever they play a good offense. To illustrate the disparity, I looked up the number of big plays (20 yards or more) given up by K-State in its six games against FBS opponents. Team (No. of [...] read more

October 26th, 2010 at 12:00 pm / #college football #k-state

Well, we struck gold last week as Blind Bets achieved the hat trick, going a perfect 3-0. That makes me 11-6 against the spread on the year. Will this last forever? Of course it will! I'm invincible. I AM ROME! Game 1: Iowa -5.5 vs. Wisconsin Just like last week with South Carolina, I think [...] read more

October 22nd, 2010 at 10:00 am / #betting #sports betting #missouri #college football #oklahoma

Check out my Baylor preview at Holy Turf. read more

October 21st, 2010 at 12:43 pm / #college football #k-state #baylor

Sadly, I wasn't able to make it to Madness in Manhattan last Friday, so I'll have to get my fix from this video. Jacob Pullen and Rodney McGruder interview fans in Aggieville. All of them were willing to do their best Frank Martin impression, but hardly anyone knew how to "Dougie." Enjoy! read more

October 20th, 2010 at 06:03 pm / #humor #college basketball #k-state

1. Oklahoma -- OU 52, ISU 0. The Sooners continue to impress with a big blowout over the Cyclones. It kind of felt like they were due for a blowout, but that's partially because they've played such a tough schedule. With the Huskers going down to Texas, Oklahoma is probably the Big 12′s last legit [...] read more

October 20th, 2010 at 08:39 am / #texas #nebraska #missouri #colorado #college football

K-State fans talk about their treatment in Lawrence during last week's 59-7 Wildcat victory. The first dude gets pom poms thrown at him, and another guy claims that someone threw a bar of soap at him. Look on the bright side, K-State fans. You could have travelled to a Colorado game. I know a guy [...] read more

October 19th, 2010 at 01:00 pm / #college football #k-state #ku

I'm sure I wasn't the only one who was shocked to hear that K-State was No. 22 in the season's first BCS poll. But the more I think about it, the more it makes sense. The computers absolutely love the Wildcats. K-State had an average computer ranking of No. 19. A big reason for that [...] read more

October 19th, 2010 at 10:00 am / #nebraska #college football #k-state #bcs

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