Auburn and Oregon are in control of their own destiny. One or both have to lose for TCU or Boise State to sneak in. I asked ESPN BCS guru Brad Edwards two pressing questions on the topic, and here is what he had to say:
Q: If Oregon and Auburn lose, what are the chances TCU and Boise State play for the national title if both stay undefeated?
A: Right now, you'd have to say that's the most likely scenario. Even if voters decide to elevate a 1-loss conference champion to attempt to keep it from happening, they'd need to be on the same page in deciding which team to elevate, and their choice would need to be a team that was strong enough in the computers. It would take a bunch of voters with a common goal. The biggest threat to that matchup, in my opinion, would be Auburn if it lost at Alabama then won the SEC title.
Q: So in that scenario, can the Tigers creep ahead of TCU/Boise State into the national title game?
A: If Auburn loses to Alabama then wins the SEC, the Tigers will still be very strong in the computers. My guess, though, is if Oregon is still unbeaten, most voters are willing to give TCU (or Boise State) a chance rather than try to force a team with a late loss into that spot. Then again, it's a one-loss SEC champ, and that's a decision the voters would have to make.
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