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Thursday, December 9, 2010

Re-evaluating Notre Dame's schedule

Because Notre Dame can make its own schedule and has its own pathway to a BCS game, people are always concerned with the type of slate the Irish are playing and how difficult it is. Before the season began, many said that the program was dumbing down its schedule with opponents like Western Michigan, Tulsa and Army.

Well, according to NCAA statistics, Notre Dame played the toughest regular-season schedule in the FBS this year. Its 12 opponents finished with a cumulative 79-42 record for a 65.3 winning percentage.

Let's take a quick look back on the opponents and how each one finished up (final BCS standing and bowl destination included where applicable):

Purdue: 4-8

Michigan: 7-5 (Gator Bowl presented by 5-Hour Energy)

No. 9 Michigan State: 11-1 (Capitol One Bowl)

No. 4 Stanford: 11-1 (Discover Orange Bowl)

Boston College: 7-5 (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)

Pittsburgh: 7-5 (BBVA Compass Bowl)

Western Michigan: 6-6

Navy: 8-3* (San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl)

Tulsa: 9-3 (Sheraton Hawaii Bowl)

Army: 6-5* (Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl)

No. 19 Utah: 10-2 (MAACO Las Vegas Bowl)

USC**: 8-5

(* one game remaining; ** ineligible for bowls).

So the Irish played 11 teams that finished with at least a .500 record, plus two Top 10 teams and nine bowl teams. It would be 10 bowl teams out of 12 if USC weren't on probation. Tulsa and Army proved more feisty than originally thought.

On the flip side, seven of the 12 teams had at least five losses, and only Michigan State and Stanford are truly imposing on this list. Notre Dame lost to both of them.

The NCAA statistic simply measures won-loss records of the opponents, which doesn't always tell the whole story. Let's look at how some of the computer rankings used in the BCS formula rate the schedule:

Jeff Sagarin ratings: No. 24

Anderson and Hester: No. 16

Colley Matrix: No. 3

By any measurement, Notre Dame played one of the better schedules in the country.

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